Market participants report that traders have already pushed through increases of up to €500/ton on prompt material, rapidly exhausting available stocks. Price lists are being revised almost daily, highlighting the extreme volatility and limited visibility in the market.
Supply squeeze intensifies amid limited imports
Supply conditions remain severely tight. While the US is a key supplier to the EU27, countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Egypt, and South Korea collectively accounted for over 40% of imports in 2025. However, all these regions are currently facing disruptions. Constraints in the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure across the Gulf have driven crude and feedstock costs sharply higher, further restricting import availability.
No fresh offers have been reported from South Korea or the Middle East, while US suppliers are targeting price increases of around $300/ton for May–June shipments, alongside ongoing logistical delays.
Regional production has also been impacted by shutdowns, reduced operating rates, and force majeure declarations. Orlen declared force majeure on LDPE supply from Plock in early March, while LyondellBasell also announced force majeure on certain polyolefin supplies in Europe due to escalating geopolitical tensions linked to the Iran conflict.
Sellers tighten control as surcharges rise
Producers and distributors have tightened sales strategies, with many closing order books or issuing offers with very short validity periods. In some cases, prices are being left open due to the risk of rapid intra-day changes.
Surcharges have further added to upward pressure. Borealis revised its March sales terms due to rising feedstock and input costs, particularly linked to naphtha and LPG. Other producers have implemented similar measures, resulting in cumulative spot increases of €400–500/ton for March. In the contract market, an additional €200/ton surcharge has been applied on top of ethylene cost increases.
Overall, spot LDPE prices have surged by around 44% since late February, reflecting the sharp shift in market dynamics.
Demand picks up amid limited availability
On the demand side, activity has increased as converters with low inventories rush to secure material. Buyers initially accepted increases of €100–200/ton earlier in March, but larger hikes are now being seen. Some market participants are actively rebuilding stocks ahead of expected April increases, while others report growing difficulty in securing prompt volumes.
Market outlook remains strongly bullish
Market sentiment remains firmly bullish, with several participants expecting LDPE prices to approach or even exceed €2000/ton by the end of the month. Further increases are anticipated in April and May, supported by ongoing logistical disruptions, container shortages, and uncertainty around Middle Eastern supply routes.
The next ethylene contract settlement is also expected to rise by around €200/ton, which could add further upward pressure on prices. Overall, tight supply conditions are likely to persist in both the near and medium term.
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