Logistical challenges and supply interruptions tied to the war have significantly reduced cargo availability from Middle Eastern producers. As a result, most offers circulating in Southeast Asian markets this week have originated from China, while some Middle Eastern cargoes have been re-exported through Chinese channels.
Chinese cargoes dominate an increasingly volatile market
Vietnam’s import market — often viewed as a key regional benchmark — experienced strong volatility during the week, with homo-PP raffia offers changing frequently and sometimes disappearing within hours after being announced.
At the start of the week, Chinese homo-PP raffia offers were heard slightly above $1090/ton CIF Vietnam. By Friday, discussions had surged to around $1250–1350/ton CIF, representing an increase of roughly $250–300/ton compared with the previous week.
Market participants reported that conditions have become increasingly unstable as sellers repeatedly raise prices and quickly withdraw offers.
A Vietnamese woven bag producer said he concluded a deal for Chinese homo-PP raffia at $1095/ton CIF Vietnam on Monday, describing it as a relatively favorable level before prices accelerated further.
“Prices are still moving up. We have enough material until mid-May, but if levels rise too much we may stop purchasing because our customers may not accept such high prices,” he explained.
Another converter in Vietnam reported receiving a Chinese offer at $1180/ton earlier in the week that was quickly withdrawn shortly afterward.
Meanwhile, a trader said a Chinese supplier issued an offer as high as $1300/ton CIF Vietnam on Thursday, a level rarely seen in the market.
Traders confirmed that Chinese material has effectively become the only available spot supply. One Vietnamese trader said that no new offers from Middle Eastern suppliers are currently circulating.
He also noted that domestic prices in Vietnam have increased as well, though many companies are releasing inventory cautiously due to concerns that prices could fall quickly if crude oil weakens.
Tight regional supply heightens uncertainty
Market participants say supply conditions across Southeast Asia remain extremely tight as the Middle East conflict disrupts feedstock availability and forces production adjustments.
A Vietnamese trader noted that Nghi Son Refinery & Petrochemical is currently operating at about 50% capacity due to a shortage of Kuwaiti feedstock. He warned that additional regional producers could declare force majeure if disruptions continue.
Other Vietnamese plants have also reduced production because of raw material shortages tied to the conflict. Hyosung Corp. has lowered operating rates at its 300,000 ton/year PDH and PP facilities in Ba Ria–Vung Tau after LPG supply disruptions.
Meanwhile, Long Son Petrochemicals has cut run rates at its 400,000 ton/year PP plant and was reportedly close to declaring force majeure earlier in March.
These production cuts have further tightened supply across the region, increasing Southeast Asia’s dependence on Chinese cargoes in the spot market.
China strengthens its position in global PP trade
The shift comes as China has already been expanding its influence in global PP trade through rapidly increasing exports.
In 2025, China’s PP exports jumped 29% year on year, surpassing 3 million tons for the first time, while imports declined by 8%, reflecting the country’s growing self-sufficiency.
Although China still imported slightly more PP than it exported last year, the gap narrowed significantly to around 270,000 tons, compared with over 1.2 million tons in 2024.
This export growth has strengthened China’s presence in Asian markets, particularly across Southeast Asia and South Asia.
Vietnam remained China’s largest PP export destination in 2025, accounting for 17% of total shipments, followed by Bangladesh and Indonesia.
Vietnam increasingly dependent on Chinese supply
Vietnam’s import data highlights how rapidly China has expanded its role in the country’s PP market.
China supplied 443,000 tons of PP to Vietnam in 2025, representing 29% of Vietnam’s total imports of about 1.5 million tons. This compares with 349,000 tons (25%) in 2024 and 170,000 tons (14%) in 2023.
South Korea had long been Vietnam’s leading supplier, but China’s rapid export growth has allowed it to close the gap and increasingly compete for market share.
Market participants say the ongoing Middle East conflict could accelerate China’s broader goal of becoming a net PP exporter. With Gulf supply temporarily restricted, many regional buyers are turning to China as the most accessible source of material.
However, traders warn that the market remains extremely fragile.
“Prices are changing almost every day because crude oil and feedstock costs are highly uncertain during the war,” one trader said. “If the conflict continues, supply disruptions could worsen and prices may climb further. But if crude oil suddenly drops, the market could also fall very quickly.
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